Fifty-five percent of U.S. consumers are buying less beef or have stopped entirely amid rising prices, the New World screwworm outbreak and global trade disruptions, according to the 2026 Consumer Grocery and Protein Trends survey released July 21 by Blue Yonder.
At the same time, one-third of consumers have increased their overall protein purchases in the past six months, shifting spending toward chicken, eggs, canned proteins and other alternatives.
The New World screwworm – a livestock parasite not seen in U.S. cattle for decades – has been detected in Texas and has begun spreading beyond its initial containment zone. Seventy-eight percent of respondents said they are concerned it could further affect beef prices or availability.
“More than half of consumers are pulling back from beef, and the screwworm outbreak is adding another layer of uncertainty to an already strained supply chain,” said Wayne Usie, chief strategy officer at Blue Yonder. “At the same time, demand for protein overall is not going away. Consumers are actively rethinking where they get their protein and how much they’re willing to pay for it.”
Where beef dollars are going
Among consumers cutting back, 44 percent are buying more chicken, pork and seafood; 28 percent are buying more canned or shelf-stable proteins; 22 percent are turning to egg-based proteins; 18 percent are opting for plant-based proteins; and 10 percent are increasing purchases of protein powder substitutes.
Within the beef category, 40 percent of buyers said they are purchasing beef less frequently; 17 percent have switched to cheaper cuts; 11 percent have largely stopped buying beef; and 4 percent have stopped completely because of rising prices.
Younger shoppers drive protein spending
Despite rising costs, 33 percent of respondents said they have increased protein purchases in the past six months for health and dietary reasons. The trend skews young: 54 percent of Gen Z consumers increased protein purchases in the last six months, compared with 41 percent of millennials, 35 percent of Gen X and 20 percent of baby boomers.
To balance costs against health goals, 27 percent are paying more to maintain their current diet and fitness routine 23 percent are shopping multiple stores based on discounts and promotions and 13 percent are switching to cheaper protein sources. Gen Z is the most willing to pay a premium at 48 percent, followed by millennials at 30 percent and Gen X and boomers at 22 percent each.
Whey shortage tests brand loyalty
Supply constraints, including the ongoing whey protein shortage, are making shoppers more price-conscious. If a preferred whey protein product rose significantly in price, 20 percent said they would buy a generic or store brand, 20 percent would switch to a different protein source and 6 percent would stop buying protein supplements altogether. Only 14 percent said they would pay the higher price.
“When prices rise on a product like whey protein, most consumers don’t just absorb the cost. They switch brands or walk away entirely,” Usie said. “That’s a signal for brands and grocery retailers that loyalty is weaker than it looks right now, and the companies that can offer the right mix of value, variety and availability are the ones that will hold onto those shoppers.”
Blue Yonder noted that shifts of this magnitude complicate demand planning, as forecasts built on historical patterns struggle to keep pace when shoppers abandon one protein category and move into others.
Fuel costs top the blame list
Eighty-five percent of respondents said they are concerned about the impact of inflation on grocery prices, and 83 percent pointed to higher freight and transportation costs tied to rising fuel prices. Additionally, 81 percent believe the Strait of Hormuz closure is responsible for elevated prices, given that roughly one-fifth of global oil moves through the region.
Respondents also cited global tariffs (64 percent), increased raw ingredient costs (57 percent), increased profit margins for brands and manufacturers (50 percent) and increased labor costs in manufacturing and food processing (47 percent).
The survey was fielded by a third-party provider in June and July 2026 among more than 1,000 U.S. consumers involved in their households’ grocery shopping.
Dallas, Texas-based Blue Yonder provides AI-driven supply chain planning and execution software to more than 3,000 retailers, manufacturers and logistics service providers.