Fresh perimeter bakery departments weathered a difficult August better than their center-store counterparts, with unit sales down 2.4 percent year over year compared to a 5.4 percent decline for aisle bakery, according to the August bakery update compiled by 210 Analytics utilizing Circana data (Integrated Fresh, MULO+, August 2026).
Perimeter bakery generated $2 billion during the five weeks ending Aug. 30, with dollar sales down 2.5 percent year over year. The year-to-date picture remained healthier: dollar sales of $15 billion were up 1.8 percent from the prior year, with unit sales off just 0.1 percent, essentially flat in a year when total retail food and beverage unit sales declined.
The month’s results came against a tough consumer backdrop. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 51.7 in August from 55.2 in July; food prices rose 3.2 percent year over year; and gasoline held above $4 per gallon throughout the month. Total retail food and beverage unit sales declined 2.1 percent during the period.
Sweet goods, cookies lead fresh bakery
Desserts and other sweet baked goods were the perimeter’s bright spot, posting positive unit sales in August, while fresh breads, buns and rolls declined 1.7 percent in units.
Among the other findings:
- Perimeter cookies grew 7 percent in units and 2.3 percent in dollars in August, reaching $306 million for the month.
- Fresh breads posted the strongest dollar growth of any major perimeter category, up 7.9 percent to $174 million, and are up 9.3 percent in dollars year to date.
- Croissants (up 1.4 percent), tortillas and wraps (up 0.6 percent) and bagels/bialys (up 0.2 percent) also grew units in August.
- Cakes, the perimeter’s largest category at $586 million for the month, slipped 0.9 percent in units but remained up 1.3 percent in both dollars and units year to date.
- Morning bakery was the perimeter’s softest segment in August, down 5.6 percent in units, led by declines in muffins and pastries/danish.
- Year to date, unit sales remained ahead of prior-year levels for perimeter cookies, croissants, brownies/bars, muffins, donuts, cakes and tortillas/wraps.
Given the fresh bakery’s close connection to holidays, celebrations and seasonal occasions, the report noted, category performance can shift substantially throughout the year.
Trends to watch
Looking ahead, the report pointed to GLP-1 adoption as too large to treat as a niche trend, with one in six Americans now using a GLP-1 medication, double the 2024 share. Those users eat smaller but more frequent meals with a focus on high-protein, fiber-rich and nutrient-dense foods, reshaping meal planning and shopping.
The report also cited demand for nostalgia and cuisine mashups, with more than half of American shoppers seeking globally inspired, unique or fun new flavors, and Gen Z’s pursuit of texture-rich, functional micro-meals throughout the day.
Related: The Fresh Bakery Renaissance: Why In-Store Bakeries Are Grocery’s Secret Weapon In 2026