The fresh in-store bakery continued to outperform the center-store bakery aisle in September, with perimeter cookies, desserts and breads all growing while most packaged baked goods lost units, according to the September bakery update compiled by 210 Analytics for the American Bakers Association using Circana data.
Perimeter bakery sales reached $1.6 billion in the four weeks ending Sept. 27, with unit sales down just 0.6 percent from a year ago. The center-store aisle, at $2.0 billion, saw units fall 3.1 percent. The gap is wider over the full year: perimeter bakery dollars are up 2.2 percent to $22.7 billion over the latest 52 weeks, with units up 0.5 percent, while aisle bakery dollars slipped 0.1 percent and units fell 2.8 percent.
The perimeter’s resilience comes against a difficult backdrop for grocery retailers. Consumer confidence dropped again in September, gas prices hit a Labor Day high of $4.15 per gallon and Consumer Edge card data showed grocers lost 37 basis points of wallet share from March through August versus the same period in 2025. Total bakery sales, aisle and perimeter combined, were down 0.9 percent in dollars and 2.4 percent in units for the month, an improvement from August’s declines of 2.5 percent and 4.3 percent.
The report noted that shoppers continued to prioritize quality and health, with premium choices holding even as overall food and beverage inflation stayed at 2.2 percent.
Key findings
- Perimeter cookies led the department, with dollar sales up 3.8 percent to $247.6 million and units up 7.6 percent.
- Desserts and sweet goods, the largest perimeter segment at $854.6 million, grew units 2.5 percent for the month and 1.8 percent over 52 weeks.
- Perimeter breads grew 6.9 percent in dollars for the month and 8.6 percent over 52 weeks.
- Cakes, the largest single perimeter category at $487.5 million, grew units 0.7 percent in September and 1.9 percent for the year.
- Croissants grew 2.1 percent in both dollars and units, and tortillas and wraps grew 1.2 percent and 1.3 percent.
- Over 52 weeks, perimeter brownies are up 10.1 percent in dollars and 5.4 percent in units, donuts are up 4.3 percent in dollars and muffins are up 2.7 percent in dollars and 3.7 percent in units.
Sweet goods carry the department
Desserts and sweet baked goods did the heavy lifting in September. Cookies posted the strongest growth in the perimeter on both measures, and cakes held steady at nearly half a billion dollars for the month. Over the past year, cookies are up 2.8 percent in dollars and 2.3 percent in units, and cakes are up 1.9 percent on both.
Brownies cooled in September after a strong run, with units down 4.8 percent for the month, but remain one of the fastest-growing perimeter categories in the 52-week view at $517.7 million. Croissants, at $80.9 million for the month, are up 5.2 percent in dollars for the year.
The report pointed to the perimeter’s close connection to holidays, celebrations and seasonal occasions as a reason category performance can shift substantially through the year. That same connection works in the in-store bakery’s favor heading into the fourth quarter.
Bread finds growth in the perimeter
Bread is the largest baked goods category in the store and the one under the most pressure in the aisle, where units fell 3.5 percent in September. In the perimeter, breads moved the other way: dollar sales rose 6.9 percent to $142.1 million and units rose 0.8 percent. Over 52 weeks, perimeter bread dollars are up 8.6 percent, the strongest dollar growth of any perimeter category.
Perimeter buns and rolls remained the exception, down 3.4 percent in units for the month and 4.3 percent for the year, even as aisle buns and rolls grew units 2.5 percent in September.
Morning bakery: a soft month in a strong year
Morning bakery was the perimeter’s weak spot in September, down 6.0 percent in dollars and 4.3 percent in units, with muffins off 4.0 percent in units and pastries and Danish off 7.5 percent. The longer view is healthier. Over 52 weeks, perimeter morning bakery is up 2.9 percent in dollars and 1.3 percent in units, muffins are up 3.7 percent in units and donuts are up 4.3 percent in dollars.
That contrast with the aisle is stark. Center-store morning bakery fell 8.0 percent in dollars and 10.4 percent in units in September, with aisle donuts down 15.7 percent in units and aisle muffins down 10.1 percent.
Suppliers to in-store bakeries have built their lineups around that split. Bake’n Joy, which supplies predeposited batters, mixes and fully baked items to retail bakeries, lists predeposited muffin batters in three tiers (UltraMoist, Homestyle and the Kitchen Cupboard clean label line) with seasonal flavors such as pumpkin, apple cider, gingerbread and cherry almond that give bakery managers a way to rotate the case through the fall and holidays without adding labor. The company also offers thaw-and-serve muffins and a protein line with blueberry, chocolate chip and cranberry orange muffin batters, a fit with the report’s note that shoppers continue to prioritize quality and health.
Formats built for the perimeter
The categories growing in the in-store bakery share a trait: they lend themselves to small, portable and occasion-driven formats. Bake’n Joy’s product listings illustrate the direction. Its Wiley Roads cake bites come fully baked and frozen in 2-packs and 9-packs in flavors such as vanilla birthday cake, red velvet, lemon and carrot cake, with a stated shelf life of up to 21 days, and its donut muffins are made without artificial ingredients or trans fats. Predeposited cookie dough, brownies, scoop-and-bake batters and baked cupcakes round out a lineup aimed at the cookies, cakes and sweet goods categories that led September.
For retailers, the appeal is a case that can be refreshed daily with limited skilled labor while still carrying a scratch-baked look, which the report’s numbers suggest shoppers are still willing to pay for in the perimeter even as they trade down elsewhere in the store.
Heading into the holidays
The National Retail Federation predicts consumers will spend $890 per person on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items this year, down 1.3 percent from the 2025 record. Grocery stores rank second among shopping destinations at 46 percent, behind online at 55 percent.
That puts the in-store bakery in a strong position for the season. Seasonal pies, cakes and morning items tied to Thanksgiving and December entertaining fall squarely in the perimeter categories that have held up best over the past year, and the report’s month-over-month improvement in September suggests demand is firming as the fourth quarter begins.
