A typical grocery stock-up trip now costs more than $366, roughly 27 percent above a comparable 2020 basket, according to the inaugural Acosta Group Affordability Tracker released July 23.
The Jacksonville, Florida-based firm measures affordability by comparing the cost of an 84-item basket of commonly purchased grocery and household essentials against median hourly earnings in the U.S. Purchasing power has improved since bottoming out in 2023 as wage growth outpaced grocery inflation during parts of the recovery, but that recovery has largely stabilized, suggesting future gains will be more incremental than those between 2023 and 2025.
The finding retailers may care about most: the value-oriented behaviors shoppers adopted during the inflation surge have not receded along with prices. Consumers continue showing elevated promotional engagement, heightened price awareness and more deliberate purchase decisions.
“Grocery purchasing power has improved since the peak inflation years, yet many of the shopping behaviors consumers developed during that period remain firmly in place,” said Colin Stewart, EVP of business intelligence at Acosta Group. “That suggests the inflationary period may have changed consumers in more durable ways than many expected.”
Behavior no longer tracks with conditions
Historically, shopper behaviors tied to economic stress eased as conditions improved. Acosta’s data points to a different pattern, with consumers still comparing alternatives, seeking promotions and scrutinizing spending more closely than before the inflationary period.
“Future growth may depend less on waiting for economic conditions to normalize and more on understanding how consumer expectations around value have changed,” Stewart said.
Grocery gains vs. household pressure
The report separates grocery affordability from broader household financial sentiment. Housing, insurance, health care and transportation costs continue competing for consumer budgets, which the firm says helps explain why shoppers still feel constrained despite measurable improvement in grocery purchasing power.
Acosta Group plans to make the tracker a recurring series covering affordability, purchasing power, value perceptions and consumer behavior. The full report is available at acosta.group.
Acosta Group is a collective of retail, marketing and foodservice agencies including Acosta, ActionLink, ADW, Core Away From Home, Crossmark, Mosaic, Premium Retail Services and Product Connections.