By the end of 2026, 19 states will have SNAP food restriction waivers in place, affecting roughly one‑third of program participants and putting up to $830 million in soda, candy and energy drink sales at risk, according to a new report from Numerator, a consumer data and technology company.
The report, “SNAP Spending in 2026: How OBBBA and Food Restrictions Are Changing Consumer Behavior,” combines verified purchase data with a survey of more than 1,000 SNAP households.
Government shutdown softened SNAP spending
The October-November 2025 government shutdown caused measurable pullbacks among SNAP households. Weekly grocery spending among SNAP households fell by 10 percent, before stabilizing and eventually recovering.
Spending cuts during the shutdown fell on categories that could be deferred. In the four‑week period ending Nov. 9, 2025, the largest pullbacks versus the prior four weeks occurred in hardware (-18 percent), fast food restaurant desserts (-10 percent), beverages (-6 percent), frozen foods (-6 percent) and snacks (-5 percent).
Gas & convenience stores and e‑commerce saw steep traffic declines as SNAP households cut back on non‑essential trips. Retailers and fast food restaurants whose traffic was most affected included 7‑Eleven (-18 percent), Amazon (-17 percent), Shell (-15 percent), Ahold Delhaize (-14 percent), Circle K (-13 percent), Wawa (-13 percent) and Taco Bell (-13 percent).
Food restriction waivers to reshape the program
By the end of 2026, 19 states will have waivers in place, restricting the use of SNAP benefits for categories such as soda, candy, and energy drinks. Restrictions are arriving in places where engagement with these categories is already high. In states where 2026 waivers are already active, soft drinks appeared in 23 percent of 2025 SNAP trips, compared to 18 percent in non‑waiver states. Candy showed a similar pattern (21 percent vs. 17 percent), as did energy drinks (10 percent vs. 8 percent).
SNAP households aware, plan to adapt
Eighty‑six percent of SNAP households in waiver states said they are aware of incoming restrictions. Sixty-three percent of SNAP consumers said they would use non‑SNAP dollars to purchase soda if it became ineligible, whether to buy as usual or shift to less expensive alternatives. Sixty percent said the same for candy, and 45 percent said the same for energy drinks.
SNAP consumers may opt for healthier alternatives to restricted items. If soda and energy drinks became ineligible, more than 30 percent of SNAP consumers said they would possibly substitute with tea, juice and coffee. Candy showed a similar pattern, with fruit, ice cream and fruit snacks each cited by more than 30 percent of SNAP users as potential replacements.
Restricted categories face up to $830 million in losses
In states implementing food restriction waivers by the end of 2026, SNAP households intending to redirect spending to other categories or cut back purchases could drive sales declines of up to 430 million for soda, 300 million for candy and $100 million for energy drinks.
New SNAP policy has already reduced benefits and increased cost pressures. The extension of work requirements to adults aged 55 to 64 without dependents is among the most impactful elements of the OBBBA, with 54 percent of these households reporting reduced benefits since November 2025 (29 percent said the reduction is extreme; 26 percent said it is minor to moderate).
At‑Risk Households Shift to Value Retailers
In December 2025, Sam’s Club, Dollar Tree and Aldi saw increased spending from 54‑ to 65‑year‑old SNAP households (versus the prior month), with Amazon and Walmart.com showing a pronounced pullback in the same period.
Forty‑eight percent of 55‑ to 64‑year‑old SNAP households expect future reductions in monthly benefits. If benefits are reduced further, these consumers plan to shop sales and discounts (54 percent), buy private label and cheaper brands (37 percent), visit food pantries (36 percent) and shop at dollar and discount stores (30 percent).
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