Nearly every American household still reaches for chocolate, candy, gum or mints at some point in the year — but how, where and why they buy is shifting in ways independent grocers can lean into. That was the core message from Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, who presented the National Confectioners Association’s seventh annual State of Treating report during a session at the 2026 Sweets & Snacks Expo in Las Vegas.
The study, produced in partnership with Circana and made possible by Blommer Chocolate Company, draws on a December 2025 survey of 1,585 U.S. consumers paired with Circana sales and shopper data. Roerink’s central finding: shoppers are not walking away from the category, but they are recalibrating almost every dimension of their confectionery purchases.
A category still beloved, but under pressure
Total U.S. confectionery sales reached $42.5 billion in the Circana-measured channels in 2025, up 5.3 percent in dollars but down 1.5 percent in units and 2.2 percent in volume — the fourth consecutive year of unit and volume declines. Household penetration remains essentially universal at 99.8 percent, with the average buyer making 50.2 trips per year and spending $352 annually on chocolate, candy, mints and gum combined.
The pressure point is what’s happening between those trips. Dollars per trip rose 5 percent to $7.02, but annual units per buyer slipped 1.8 percent to 103.3. In other words, shoppers are showing up about as often but buying a little less each time — a direct consequence of cumulative inflation that has pushed confectionery prices roughly 40 percent higher than 2019 levels. Confectionery’s 6.9 percent year-over-year increase in average price per unit also outpaced most other grocery departments, including total store at 2.6 percent, dairy at 5.6 percent and meat at 4.7 percent.
A K-shaped economy reshapes choices
Roerink emphasized that broad consumer-sentiment numbers mask a sharply divided marketplace. Among the 17 percent of respondents who described themselves as financially comfortable, brand and mood drive purchase decisions, with price ranking lower. Among the 14 percent who said they are financially tight and the 10 percent struggling to afford basics, price and promotion dominate, with brand and mood falling away.
Among the 39 percent of consumers who reported eating less chocolate in 2025, 53 percent cited the cost of groceries and life in general, 43 percent cited limiting sugar and 38 percent cited the cost of chocolate specifically. Health, weight management and concerns about processed foods followed.
Despite the pressure, 93 percent of shoppers said they can still be persuaded to spend a little more than planned. The top triggers: a favored brand (50 percent), a special occasion (43 percent), a holiday (43 percent) and doing something nice for themselves (37 percent).
What consumers are leaning toward
When asked what they would change if money were no issue, 44 percent said they would buy their preferred brand more often, 43 percent would buy what mood dictated rather than what was on sale, and 41 percent would try more new items — a strong signal of pent-up demand once financial pressure eases.
Several preference shifts stood out in the data:
Texture as the new flavor. Twenty-three percent of Gen Z said they love freeze-dried candy, compared with just 3 percent of Boomers. Freeze-dried candy sales reached $165 million in 2025, up 52.1 percent in dollars and 63 percent in units. Sour crystals, crunchy and liquid-filled textures also over-index with Gen Z, while Boomers favor gooey, gummy and chewy.
Adventurous flavors. Twenty-four percent of Gen Z and 18 percent of Millennials say they prefer sour over sweet, versus just 5 percent of Boomers. Interest in mystery flavors hits 38 percent among Gen Z and 40 percent among Millennials, but drops to 11 percent among Boomers. UPCs containing the word “mystery” grew dollar sales 21.8 percent year over year.
Cleaner labels. Twenty-seven percent of consumers say they actively avoid artificial colors and flavors, and another 52 percent would like to see them phased out over the next few years. High interest in natural options reached 39 percent, with low- and no-sugar interest rising five points to 29 percent.
Chocolate-flavored everything. Eighty-two percent of consumers said chocolate-covered pretzels, popcorn, cookies, breakfast bars and similar items at least sometimes replace chocolate candy in their basket — a number that climbs to 57 percent of Gen Z and 58 percent of Millennials reporting it happens always or often.
Discovery still happens in the aisle
Innovation accounts for an outsized share of confectionery sales — 7.9 percent of chocolate dollars and 8.6 percent of non-chocolate dollars came from new items in 2025, well above the 2 to 3 percent typical of total store. Fourteen percent of consumers said they want to try something new every few weeks, rising to 20 percent among Gen Z and just 3 percent among Boomers.
When it comes to discovery, in-store still wins overall — 49 percent of consumers find new items on grocery store endcaps and special displays, and 44 percent in the candy aisle itself. But generational differences are stark: 48 percent of Gen Z said they discover new confectionery on TikTok, compared with 1 percent of Boomers. TikTok Shop overall generated an estimated $4.8 billion in sales during the eight weeks of the 2025 winter holiday season, with confectionery contributing a meaningful share across categories from fruity and chewy candy to chocolate bars and gift boxes — a signal Roerink said independent grocers can leverage by surfacing TikTok-trending items on shelf.
Roerink also flagged a new wrinkle: 10 percent of shoppers now use AI assistants to help build grocery lists, climbing to 18 percent of Gen Z. Among those users, 54 percent said chocolate and candy appear on AI-generated lists less often than on their own — a quiet headwind worth watching.
Seasonal engagement holds, gifting opens new doors
Engagement with the four major candy holidays — Valentine’s Day, Easter, Halloween and the winter holidays — is back to or above pre-pandemic levels. Eighty-two percent of consumers said they want holiday-specific chocolate and candy with special packaging, shapes, characters, colors or flavors, but 55 percent also said they would accept regular product during candy holidays if it were cheaper.
The 2027 calendar deserves early planning: Super Bowl LXI is scheduled for Feb. 14, 2027 — Valentine’s Day itself — and Easter falls on March 28, which Roerink noted makes for an unusually short Easter season. Seventy percent of Americans engage with both Super Bowl and Valentine’s Day, and 45 percent said they would prefer balanced front-of-store displays featuring both occasions when they overlap.
Beyond the big four, 82 percent of consumers expressed interest in seasonal-specific confectionery for smaller holidays and occasions, including Mother’s Day (52 percent), Father’s Day (33 percent) and summer holidays (32 percent). And gifting outside the major seasons remains underdeveloped: 41 percent of consumers gift confectionery only a few times a year, with top reasons including secondary holidays (47 percent), cheering someone up (40 percent) and saying thank you (40 percent).
Retail tactics for independent grocers
Roerink closed with a set of merchandising plays that fit independent grocers especially well. Among them:
- Build more points of interruption. With fewer trips per buyer, secondary displays in high-traffic areas — produce, deli, front-end and seasonal aisles — recapture impulse occasions that used to happen naturally.
- Cross-merchandise chocolate-covered items with chocolate candy. When 82 percent of shoppers admit chocolate-covered snacks substitute for chocolate candy, adjacencies can capture both occasions.
- Lean into bulk and variety packs. Bulk candy fixtures let shoppers self-select portion and price point, which helps financially pressured households stay in the category.
- Call out what’s new and what’s trending. A rotating “what’s trending” or “as seen on TikTok” display, with sampling where possible, addresses the trial barrier that financial pressure creates.
- Activate secondary holidays. Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, graduation, summer holidays and “national days” like National Candy Month in June give independents a chance to extend the candy calendar without competing head-to-head with mass on the big four.
- Make the gifting case explicit. Shelf tags, signage and packaging cues that suggest a “thank you,” a “just because” or a “cheer up” gift can unlock purchases consumers wouldn’t otherwise plan.
- Plan integrated displays for Feb. 14, 2027 now. With Super Bowl LXI and Valentine’s Day landing on the same day, buyers and category managers have nearly a year to design crossover programs that serve the 70 percent of Americans who care about both occasions.
The outlook
Despite the recalibration story, the long-term picture remains constructive. Euromonitor projects total U.S. confectionery sales will reach $62.2 billion by 2030, up $7.3 billion from 2025, with growth across chocolate, non-chocolate and gum. Roerink framed the opportunity around what she called the golden triangle of permissibility, favorability and affordability — 82 percent of consumers agreed it is fine to occasionally have a piece of chocolate or candy, and 74 percent said physical health and emotional well-being are interconnected.
“People love our category,” Roerink told attendees. “That is something we can activate and benchmark on each and every year.”
The full State of Treating 2026 report is available for download at CandyUSA.com/StateOfTreating.