At this time last year, tariffs dominated the conversation among Michigan retailers. This spring, the pressures look different: severe weather across the northern part of the state, gas prices pulling extra spending money to the pump and a retail index that has fallen to 43.7 from 59.4 a year ago, according to Victoria Veda, VP of communications for the Michigan Retailers Association.
The beginning of the year brought heavy snow, ice and flooding to northern Michigan, where major roads around Traverse City washed out and consumers were faced with navigating repairs, power outages and disrupted routes to work – and to the grocery store. The association believes the severe weather contributed to the index’s drop, Veda said.
“A lot of our northern Michigan retailers were dealing with storm damage and power outages. And the consumers there, too, they’re having to navigate a lot of repairs and even major roadways being shut down,” Veda said.
“Last year the talk was on tariffs, but this year any extra spending money that folks have is going into their gas tank,” she said. “We’re seeing folks are focusing a lot more on gas and groceries, the essentials.”
The squeeze shows up in statewide data. Food prices rose 3.1 percent in 2025, with grocery prices up 2.4 percent, according to Michigan State University food economist David Ortega. The average Michigan household spends $617 per month on groceries, according to a January 2026 consumer spending analysis.
One bright spot: the association’s price index, which swung from 55 to 70 last year, has held between 61 and 66 so far in 2026 – prices still rising but with far less volatility, which Veda called a good indicator for consumers and retailers trying to plan.
“Retail is resilient and agile, and our strong retailers are finding ways to help business thrive,” she said.
Absorbing wage increases
Michigan’s minimum wage rose to $13.73 in January and is scheduled to reach $15 in 2027. For grocers – particularly independents – the increase is one more line in a long column of external costs, according to Veda.
“Whether it’s tariffs or minimum wage increases or inflation or supply chain changes, there’s always some kind of external pressure being felt, so they do their best to absorb the costs and shift responsibilities where they’re able,” she said, adding that grocers review operating processes to streamline and maximize their workforces.
Tariff pressures persist
The association has surveyed its members on tariffs twice – once in spring 2025 shortly after implementation and again this spring. Nearly 75 percent of retailers reported negative or strong negative impacts, according to Veda.
A small percentage reported benefits – mostly local artisans and the vintage and thrift sector, to which shoppers turn to avoid cost increases. For independent grocers, the heaviest burden is uncertainty.
“They don’t have large regional warehouses where they can store bulk products that they can order in advance before tariffs go into effect,” Veda said. “They might not have entire legal teams keeping up with the latest tariff updates and tracking which products are going to be impacted and not.”
Independents may hold one advantage over national chains, she noted – the ability to adjust supply chains a little more quickly than larger brands that face extra approvals. But the administrative load of vetting new suppliers and reading customer sensitivities falls on far smaller teams.
The pressure extends across Michigan’s broader food economy. After a record $2.9 billion in agricultural-related exports in 2024, the state saw steep declines in the first half of 2025 – wheat down 89 percent, cherries 62 percent and apples 58 percent – as trading partners imposed retaliatory tariffs of up to 140 percent on U.S. agricultural goods, according to the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development.
Michigan producers are projected to lose $167 million in exports in the year ahead, according to USDA data presented to a state Senate committee in December 2025.
At the shelf level, a November 2025 report from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s administration projected tariffs would push food prices up 3.6 percent, while steel and aluminum tariffs could raise canned food manufacturers’ costs by up to 12 percent, MDARD reported.
On coming SNAP changes, including new federal work requirements, Veda said grocers are responding as they do to most external pressures – by adapting.
“If common SNAP items are being purchased less, being agile and shifting their inventory to products that they are seeing purchased more, maybe increasing cost-affordable items will help lower-income communities keep their food on the table,” she said.
The stakes are high. Nearly 1.4 million Michiganders rely on SNAP, according to the Fair Food Network, and Michigan SNAP households received an average of $335 per month in fiscal year 2024, according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.
The National Grocers Association has noted some independent stores in low-income neighborhoods see more than 50 percent of sales come from SNAP and that significant cuts would threaten their business.
Michigan made, bought nearby
If there is a defining strength in Michigan’s grocery landscape, it is the relationship between independent grocers and the state’s local makers, according to Veda. Larger regional chains are taking notice – Capital City Market by Meijer in Lansing carries some 2,000 products from local artisans, she said.
“Michiganders really do love to support the local artisans, the Michigan Made, the growing brands that are now becoming more popular, regionally or even nationally,” Veda said. 
“If it’s made in Michigan, sold in Michigan, [eaten] in Michigan – the more money that we can keep in Michigan, the better.”
That message anchors the association’s “Buy Nearby” campaign, heading into its 14th Buy Nearby weekend the first full weekend in October, with party packs and a “shop three” challenge rewarding consumers for visiting Michigan-owned retailers.
The Buy Nearby Economic Study, conducted with Public Sector Consultants, found that shifting 10 percent of the state’s remote purchases to Michigan-based businesses would create 11,911 jobs, boost labor income by about $557 million and add $1.1 billion in value to the state’s economy.
Every $100 spent at a Michigan retailer produces more than $5 supporting public services, Veda said, and the study counts nearly 510,000 retail workers statewide.
The technology imperative
The study found about $38.3 billion of Michigan’s $195.1 billion in 2024 retail sales – about 20 percent – came through remote channels, above the 16 percent national average Veda cited.
She considers technology adoption vital to the survival of independent grocers, pointing to growing integrations with delivery services, curbside pickup, mobile apps and loyalty programs.
Veda illustrated the stakes with a local comic and game store that stocked trending NeeDoh toys for six months – until a school group wandered in and cleared the inventory in under an hour. The problem, she said, was discoverability – the shop’s website does not list its full inventory, so searches never surfaced the product.
“AI engine optimization is going to be really key in helping retailers compete, because that convenience factor is getting stronger and stronger, and consumers are trying to automate as much as they can,” she said.
Dynamic pricing under debate
House Bills 5222 and 5224 would ban dynamic pricing in Michigan grocery and large retail stores. Drew Beardsley, the association’s government affairs VP, testified on the legislation recently, and Veda said the concern centers on definitions – in retail, the practice typically means discounts and loyalty rewards, not demand-based price hikes.
“It’s not a good business practice to artificially inflate prices on consumers for any reason, so that’s really not happening,” Veda said.
The association supports responsible data use but wants precision in the bill language, she said.
“We want to keep customer data safe. We also don’t want to jeopardize retailers’ opportunities to offer discounts or incentivize that customer loyalty. So, the language used in any of this will be very important,” she said.
She also pushed back on fears around digital shelf labels, framing them as automating tasks rather than eliminating roles, with benefits in accuracy and consistency.
The state’s bottle deposit law remains a sore point – retailers are the primary point of return, and redemption rates keep declining while other recycling rates rise – but Veda does not expect movement on the bill before the election this fall.
On organized retail crime, Michigan’s FORCE team remains the national standard for retail-law enforcement coordination, according to Veda.
The association is advocating for general fund support rather than seized-asset funding so those assets can be returned to retailers. Gift card fraud legislation moved out of committee in April, a step toward prosecution under the state’s organized retail crime statutes.
Staying plugged in
Asked for the single most pressing challenge facing Michigan grocers, Veda declined to pick one but kept returning to the pace of consumer change.
“We live in a world now where consumer trends evolve so rapidly,” she said.
“For retailers to be able to predict what’s going to be trending in six months, it really does require our independent retailers to stay very plugged in and aware of consumer trends and to really listen to their customers and pay attention to what their needs are and their requests are,” she added.
The web of relationships across the state, though, is what Veda believes sets Michigan apart.
“I feel like what stands out in our state is that partnership with local artisans and independent grocers and local retailers, of building those communities, and the shoppers really rallying around these artisans too,” she said.
“There’s a lot of really cool programs happening across Michigan like that.”