Grocery retailers saw a more favorable pricing environment in March as the food-at-home index declined 0.2 percent, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The decline reflected easing pressure across several categories, including meats, cereals, dairy and beverages, though fruits and vegetables rose modestly.
Volume holds steady as consumers favor at-home meals
Data from 210 Analytics showed that retail grocery volume has stabilized after a volatile start to 2026, with year-to-date volume up 0.4 percent. The uptick came even as foodservice traffic declined, suggesting consumers continue to prioritize eating at home — a trend that bodes well for grocery operators.
FMS Solutions, which tracks financial performance among independent grocers, noted a positive sales trend toward the end of the first quarter in its latest Pulse newsletter. The company also highlighted the continued strong contribution of deli and bakery departments, particularly in prepared foods, which have helped support overall store margins.
Category performance remains mixed
Performance across departments was uneven in March. Meat demand remained strong, led by beef and chicken, while fruit saw volume growth despite deflation limiting dollar gains. Vegetables posted dollar growth but saw unit sales decline. Seafood and baked goods softened, particularly in center store, while deli-prepared foods continued to perform well.
Outlook for independent grocers
Food-at-home inflation has normalized in recent months, and the overall trend remains favorable for grocery retail, according to FMS Solutions. While short-term fluctuations driven by external factors such as energy costs are expected, current conditions provide a more stable foundation than in recent years.
FMS Solutions emphasized that timely insight and disciplined financial decision-making remain critical for operators looking to protect margins in the current environment.
Independents invited to participate in annual Financial Study
Independent grocery operators looking to benchmark their performance against peers can participate in the 2026 FMS/NGA U.S. Independent Grocers Financial Study, which is now open.
Conducted annually in partnership with the National Grocers Association, the study is described as the most comprehensive financial benchmarking resource available to independent operators. It covers key metrics including margin, labor, shrink and other operational areas.
Grocers who complete the survey will receive the full published report at no cost before it is released to the broader industry. The survey deadline has been extended to Friday, May 1.
To request a survey, visit fmssolutions.com/2026-independent-grocers-financial-study.