What Does Future Of Independent Grocery Hold?

Editor’s note: This is the first of a three-part series of articles intended to provide a view of the path to a brighter future for independent grocery as a whole and for independent grocers individually.

As president of the Business Service Resource Group, I’ve spent over three decades working directly with family-owned businesses in the grocery sector, guiding owners through the critical and often emotional process of succession.

I’ve practiced law in estate and transition planning, hold designations in the financial services world, have a background in psychology and work closely with NGA, FMI and – to varying degrees – nearly every wholesaler that supplies independent grocers.

Beyond advising clients, I walk this path myself, partnering with two of my sons to build and operate a growing group of convenience and liquor stores, including a new ground-up build currently under way.

That dual perspective – as a practitioner and as a father, advisor and operator – gives me a front-row seat to what’s working and what’s failing in the independent grocery space. The No. 1 question I hear in the industry: Is there a future for independent grocery?

I believe there is, and I believe there are practical steps to ensure a positive future – steps for the industry to consider and steps for each of us, as business owners, to act upon. Done right, we can preserve the legacy of local ownership that defines the independent grocery model. We can thrive.

Independent grocers compete – and win – when at the top of their game

Large national retailers often operate by committee. They have the resources to absorb short-term losses, so their decision-making can be slow and inflexible.

In contrast, independent grocers, when well-run, are nimble, responsive and deeply attuned to their communities. That responsiveness is a strategic advantage.

It’s worth noting that some of the most successful regional chains – such as H-E-B or Raley’s – are privately held. Their structures allow for long-term thinking and strategic agility, similar to well-managed independents, but with scaled infrastructure.

However, unlike large organizations, independents are typically driven by one or two individuals. And people have a life cycle. The strengths of a 25-year-old differ from those of a 45- or 65-year-old.

Unfortunately, personal prime years often do not align with business prime years – especially if one is starting from scratch. It takes time to build capital, capability and momentum. The key? Don’t start from zero.

Real challenge – bridging the buyer-seller gap

Currently, there are more independent grocers considering retirement or exit than there are ready buyers with the right blend of capital, stamina and operational experience.

Buyers are out there, but they often lack one or more of the three legs of the stool – capital, experience or energy. The question becomes: How do we fill in the missing pieces?

Can we extend a store’s momentum during a transition rather than restart it from a standstill? Can we better align the financial needs of sellers with the capabilities of buyers? The answer is yes, but not without a shift in mindset.

Silent risk – overreliance on cash buyers

A recurring obstacle is the expectation that only an all-cash buyer is viable. This is a risk-averse mentality shaped in part by advisors unfamiliar with the grocery industry and its realities.

Sellers who poured their life’s work into the business often hesitate to carry risk into retirement. That’s understandable. But many also concentrate their wealth entirely in the business – effectively betting everything on a single outcome – a full-cash sale.

When this fails to materialize, the result is often disappointment, a rushed exit at a reduced valuation or no deal at all.

The truth? There are very few all-cash buyers for grocery businesses, especially single-store operations. Those with deep capital are typically institutional investors or strategic acquirers, whose objectives may not prioritize continuity of local ownership. While these buyers have a role in the market, they are not a one-size-fits-all solution.

To preserve independence, we must consider alternative structures that enable viable transitions, especially for buyers with operational know-how but limited liquidity.

Owner-operators fading – consolidators must step in

The traditional model – one store, one owner-operator deeply embedded in the community – is becoming less common. Demands on modern retailers are high. The risk, hours and complexity deter many from stepping into ownership, even if they’re otherwise qualified.

Simultaneously, many current owners are approaching retirement without clear successors in place. This creates a vacuum – often filled by non-local buyers or, worse, not filled at all.

What the market increasingly needs as one option are well-supported consolidators – individuals or firms capable of operating multiple stores while maintaining local engagement. These consolidators require transition-friendly deal structures, mentorship and often some seller participation to get off the ground. But the consolidators also should not be the only option.

Hidden talent, untapped potential

Across the industry, we see bright, dedicated professionals – regional managers, department heads, operations leads – who remain employees because there’s no accessible path to ownership.

Take “Bob,” a third-generation grocery employee. Despite multiple lucrative offers outside the industry, he’s stayed in grocery out of passion and legacy. Yet, despite his experience and motivation, ownership remains out of reach – not for lack of talent but for lack of infrastructure.

Bob’s story is not unique. Many of these people are in stores today – underutilized, overqualified and disconnected from a future in ownership. We can do better.

Why seller financing shouldn’t be feared

Sellers often equate all-cash deals with safety. In truth, that mindset frequently leads to either low-value exits or no deal at all.

Properly structured seller financing is not reckless. In fact, many banks are willing to refinance seller notes within three years based on performance – and the SBA can help in some very big ways.

Structured correctly – with clear expectations, covenants and oversight – it can expand the buyer pool and maintain business continuity.

With proper support, an owner can assess deals based on EBITDA, cash flow and debt coverage ratios. The data provides clarity not just for the seller, but for lenders and buyers alike. When both sides are educated and the numbers are sound, seller financing becomes a strategic tool, not a risk.

Infrastructure matters – building a sustainable future

If we want independent grocery to remain viable, we need infrastructure to support transitions. That includes:

Training programs for young professionals focused on ownership readiness – covering finance, operations and leadership.
Transitional leadership, such as interim CEOs and CFOs, to bridge gaps during succession; and
Expanded financing options, including SBA lending, regional bank partnerships and structured seller financing.

I often compare this to the model used in churches. When a pastor departs, they don’t shut down the congregation; they bring in an interim. Grocery stores deserve the same continuity.

With the right training, standards and support, a network of interim leaders could serve as the connective tissue of the industry, ensuring smooth transitions.

Long-term support, not one-time advice

What’s needed is more than a consultant – it’s an enduring financial services resource. One that provides ongoing education, strategic planning and leadership development. A partner in stewardship.

Industrywide collaboration is critical. We must cultivate and retain resources that will outlast the current generation – partners who understand succession, structure and the emotional weight that comes with selling a legacy.

This isn’t theory. This is practical, repeatable execution. And it works.

Conclusion: Choose stewardship over fear

At the core of this conversation is stewardship. Independent grocers don’t just operate businesses – they are caretakers of community institutions. A store closing isn’t just a transaction – it’s a loss of jobs, access and identity for a neighborhood or an entire town.

The transition deserves better than the default assumption that only cash buyers are safe or that selling must mean full separation. In many cases, the best outcomes emerge when owners stay engaged in some way – training, financing or simply providing perspective.

If we continue to avoid these conversations – if we allow short-term thinking or fear to shape long-term outcomes – we risk losing what makes this industry exceptional. But if we lean in, structure smarter exits and support the next generation, the future of independent grocery is not only possible – it’s promising. The time to act is now.

Carey Berger is president of the Business Service Resource Group, a consulting firm serving family-owned businesses, primarily in the grocery industry. He specializes in assisting business owners and their families in navigating transitions by clarifying objectives and implementing meaningful solutions. A licensed attorney and holder of CLU and ChFC designations, he is a published author and frequent speaker with more than 30 years of experience in succession planning. He also collaborates closely with Associated Wholesale Grocers through the Crossroads program and applies his expertise personally as he works alongside two of his sons building a growing group of retail operations.