Last updated on April 2nd, 2020
by Anne-Marie Roerink/210 Analytics LLC
As coranavirus social distancing measures are tightening and the number of confirmed cases are growing, retail sales are surging. Shoppers are stocking up on staples and fresh foods. 210 Analytics analyzed the sales results, provided by IRI. Total store sales increased 62.5 percent over the week ending March 15, with edibles increasing 77.8 percent. Whereas at the onset of the Covid-19 crisis in the U.S. shoppers stocked up on paper goods, hand sanitizers and cleaning supplies, shoppers were in the mindset to stock up on food the week of March 15. Boosted by an increase of 76.9 percent in meat, the total perimeter increased 44.9 percent, whereas total produce sales increased by more than one-third. Vegetables were up nearly 41 percent over 2019 and added $242.2 million versus the comparable week in 2019. Fruits gained 27 percent over the week of March 15, which translated into an additional $150.2 million.
According to Jonna Parker, team lead of fresh for IRI, the sales increases are near universal across all fresh produce, both fixed and random weight. “We’re seeing big gains for nearly all fresh fruits and vegetables with incredible acceleration for items such as potatoes, yams, oranges and mandarins,” she said. “Additionally, shoppers’ stock-up mindset is driving a huge surge in demand for frozen and shelf-stable fruits and vegetables that have longer shelf-life.”
Whereas fresh produce gained nearly 34 percent, IRI found that sales for frozen fruits and vegetables were up more than 100 percent and shelf-stable vegetables were up more than 200 percent, for the week ending March 15.
| Sales increase for the week ending 3/15/2020 | |
| Fresh fruit | +27.3% |
| Fresh vegetables | +40.6% |
| Frozen fruit | +103.5% |
| Frozen vegetables | +107.4% |
| Shelf-stable fruit | +104.5% |
| Shelf-stable vegetables | +207.7% |
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, week ending 3/15/2020
In absolute dollars, the biggest produce winners for the week of March 15 were potatoes that gained $44.2 million, or +71.6 percent. Lettuce gained $42.8 million and was up 29.1 percent. The top five was closed out by berries (up $37.4 million, or 31.8 percent), apples (up $29.4 million, or 36.9 percent) and tomatoes (up $27.6 million, or 43.2 percent).
Fresh fruit
While stocking fridges and freezers are a big part of the sales surge, home cooking and snacking became much more prevalent as well. The week of March 15 saw more school and office closures, increased working from home and some cities/states started mandating restaurant seating to be closed. Sales surges in apples, berries, oranges, etc. are without a doubt related to the desire to eat healthful snacks to build the immune system.
On the fruit side, apples generated more than 15 percent of all fruit sales and grew 36.9 percent; oranges generated more than 5 percent of fruit sales and increased 60.9 percent with another 50.2 percent increase for tangelos.
| Top 10 in weekly sales | Sales increase for the week ending 3/1/2020 | Sales increase for the week ending 3/8/2020 | Sales increase for the week ending 3/15/2020 | Weekly sales for week ending 3/15/2020 |
| Fresh fruit | -1.7% | +1.5% | +27.3% | $700.4M |
| Berries | +5.0% | +10.0% | +31.8% | $155.2M |
| Apples | -5.3% | -3.1% | +36.9% | $108.9M |
| Bananas | +2.3% | +5.4% | +24.9% | $75.6M |
| Grapes | -8.9% | -10.1% | +7.2% | $66.7M |
| Tangerines | -6.2% | -2.9% | +34.6% | $62.0M |
| Avocados | +3.1% | +6.1% | +27.4% | $54.8M |
| Oranges | -5.6% | +6.2% | +60.9% | $37.2M |
| Melons | +1.1% | +1.3% | +10.7% | $31.2M |
| Lemons | -10.9% | -6.3% | +33.8% | $18.1M |
| Pineapple | -8.0% | -1.4% | +16.9% | $16.9M |
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, week ending 3/15/2020
Fresh vegetables
On the fresh vegetable side, shoppers are stocking up on items with longer shelf life, in particular. One of the most impressive categories were potatoes. Potatoes are the second largest vegetable seller with the highest growth, at +71.6 percent. The same is true for onions that generated more than $53 million in the week of March 15 and gained 59.2 percent.
| Top 10 in weekly sales | Sales increase for the week ending 3/1/2020 | Sales increase for the week ending 3/8/2020 | Sales increase for the week ending 3/15/2020 | Weekly sales for week ending 3/15/2020 |
| Fresh vegetables | 1.2% | 4.7% | 40.6% | $838.4M |
| Lettuce | 3.1% | 5.2% | 29.1% | $189.8M |
| Potatoes | 0.3% | 6.4% | 71.6% | $105.0M |
| Tomatoes | 9.5% | 15.4% | 43.2% | $91.5M |
| Onions | -1.5% | 3.1% | 59.2% | $64.0M |
| Peppers | -3.1% | 1.5% | 37.3% | $53.5M |
| Carrots | -2.8% | -0.8% | 40.6% | $40.3M |
| Mushrooms | 3.0% | 6.4% | 35.0% | $29.5M |
| Broccoli | -2.3% | 2.0% | 33.5% | $26.5M |
| Cucumber | 5.7% | 11.3% | 32.4% | $26.0M |
| Squash | -3.5% | 1.3% | 43.5% | $22.5M |
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, week ending 3/15/2020
It is important to remember that these kinds of sales surges are only possible thanks to the work of the entire produce supply chain, from farm to retailer. As Covid-19 related measures continued to sharpen during the subsequent week, it is highly likely we’ll continue to see produce sales surge. 210 Analytics and IRI will provide weekly updates, every Tuesday.
