Circana LLC has released its Circana Compass insights, providing a detailed review of 2025 global retail food and beverage (F&B) industry performance and a forward-looking outlook for 2026.
2025 Global Trends Confirm Projections
Circana’s 2024 projection anticipated U.S. F&B industry dollar sales growth between 2 percent and 4 percent for 2025, driven by price/mix increases of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent, and volume growth ranging from 0 percent to 1 percent. Current estimates align closely, with anticipated dollar sales growth at 3.2 percent, price/mix at 3 percent and volume gains at 0.2 percent. While rising prices of select commodities, such as cocoa and coffee, have pushed up retail F&B price growth in 2025, price growth in other F&B areas remains more moderate. Retail volumes continue to grow, albeit at a tighter rate than in 2024.
The EMEA region is similarly trending in line with Circana’s expectations: Expect 2025 full-year growth to reach +4 percent in value. F&B sales in this market are fueled by heightened demand for private-label brands, which now represent 41 percent of F&B sales despite fewer promotions.
APAC market performance is also tracking in line with forecasts, showing +3.7 percent growth in value up to mid-year. Unit growth of +1.4 percent supports Circana’s expectation that price stabilization would drive unit acceleration in 2025, reaching +1.6 percent by year end. Although consumer confidence momentum stalled slightly more than anticipated at the time of the forecast, core macroeconomic indicators – particularly in the Australian economy – are improving as anticipated. The second half of 2025 is expected to see a shift toward less trading down and more trading up, as household budgets benefit from the combined effects of stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies.
2026 U.S. Projections
During the past five years, compounded inflation has driven a cumulative 34 percent rise in average retail F&B prices. Looking ahead, Circana forecasts U.S. F&B price/mix growth of 3 percent to 5 percent in 2026, shaped by ongoing cost pressures, competitive retail pricing and strategic promotional activity. However, volume growth is expected to remain tight, estimated at -1 percent to 1 percent, as consumers adopt more value-driven and multifunctional eating habits. These dynamics suggest dollar sales growth will range from 3 percent to 5 percent, indicating continued sector resilience.
“We’ve observed slowing volume growth in the first half of 2025, with a modest increase of 0.4 percent,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive VP and chief advisor for Circana. “Consumers are prioritizing in-home food and beverage spending while redefining ‘value’ with an emphasis on convenience and functionality. With these evolving behaviors, the CPG industry must strategically identify ways to stimulate demand and remain profitable. Circana continues to provide the data-driven insights necessary to guide these decisions.”
Key Factors Shaping the Industry
Circana highlights three pivotal drivers for 2026 and beyond: value, health and demographic shifts. Value remains increasingly personalized but consistently favors mass, club and value retailers. E-commerce continues to grow, propelled by advancements from the largest retailers.
Health-conscious behaviors also are reshaping the market. Consumers are prioritizing higher-protein diets, reducing alcohol and snack consumption and seeking out products with premium, health-driven ingredients. Meanwhile, tighter budgets among low-income and Hispanic households, coupled with demographic changes like declining birth rates and slower immigration trends, are influencing broader category performance.
About Circana
Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.
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