Despite inflation and economic uncertainty, the American Bakers Association (ABA) forecasts steady, slow growth in the retail and foodservice space over the next few years.
Acknowledging that 94 percent of consumers are concerned about their current financial situation due to inflation, ABA President and CEO Eric Dell still sees some positive signs.
“The good news is that they are eating at home more. They’re going to restaurants less and, if they are going to restaurants, they’re watching [what they] spend a lot more closely,” he said. “They are also increasing their purchasing power through in-store bakery and deli.”
Dell said ABA also has seen more emphasis on and purchases from in-store bakery. “Consumers are looking for money-saving measures; they’re spending more wisely.”
Dell’s remarks came during a What’s in Store Live educational workshop, part of IDDBA 2025 at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center in New Orleans. The sessions were a big draw during the three-day show, which wrapped up June 3, offering insights on the latest innovations shaping the dairy, deli, bakery and foodservice industries.
Dell opened his talk, “Bakery Playbook – Navigating Consumer Trends,” by expressing gratitude for ABA’s partnership with the International Dairy Deli Bakery Association, which organizes the annual show. He noted that ABA works with IDDBA and its president and CEO, David Haaf, on various projects throughout the year.
Dell explained that the Washington, D.C.-based ABA is the largest and most diverse trade association for the commercial baking industry in the United States. Its community includes more than 370 member companies representing some 1,200 commercial baking facilities and the extensive industry supply chain.
Addressing the economy, Dell pointed out that shoppers are still buying in-store – they’re just doing it in a “different way, in a more thoughtful manner. All this translates into a bigger retail share.”
Dell went on to note that foodservice continues to grow, just at a slower rate than retail, and that promotions are working.
“The good news is that consumers are saying that they are willing to splurge at the right time,” he said. “They still believe in splurging on baked goods … spending a little bit extra for those special occasions.”
Dell encouraged bakers to consider the diversity of their communities, adding that there are seemingly “holidays every week of the year for different cultures.”
“Find those holidays, market [them], market products that meet those holidays and meet the consumer where they are,” he said. “This is a great opportunity to take advantage of those different cultural backgrounds that we have across the country and celebrate those where folks will actually spend a little bit extra.”
Turning to purchase motivators, Dell said 91 percent of shoppers agree that baked treats can be a great reward or a little escape.
“Here again, even though folks are watching what they’re spending, they’re willing to splurge if we market it correctly, if we take the time to think about what consumers are coming into our store [for] and what they’re looking for and then meet those consumers where they’re at.”
Dell described deli prepared sandwiches as a “strong area,” with 3 percent growth in dollars and 1.7 percent in unit volume. And doughnuts and deli-prepared pizza (up 8.5 percent in units) are two other growth areas. “That’s a huge number [for pizza] when you compare it to everything else.”
Freshness remains an important consideration – whether for buns and rolls, cookies, breads or tortillas – and consumers are more willing to experiment with new products in this category. To that end, he encouraged bakery departments to offer free samples.
As for health and well-being, Dell said shoppers are defining “healthy” as more holistic – not just their physical health but also mental health.
“They’re looking for that whole body health. And they’re not just looking for certain diets or diet [fads] that may come through,” he said. “They’re looking for that whole body well-being and being interconnected.”
At the same time, he said 92 percent agree “it’s fine to occasionally enjoy baked treats and desserts.” They are focusing more on a balanced diet that can include little indulgences.
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