The grocery industry has faced significant changes in consumer purchasing habits due to economic fluctuations such as inflation and shifting concerns over tariffs and unemployment. Anne-Marie Roerink, principal at 210 Analytics, shared her insights on how these factors have influenced the meat, seafood and poultry markets.
Inflation, consumer behavior
Roerink noted a shift toward home-cooked meals as consumers adjust to economic pressures.
“I can’t say I remember a time during the past 20 years where the market had such an enormous influence on the sales happening at retail as well as restaurants,” she said.
During the last few months of 2024, Roerink noted continued concerns about inflation and a large focus on home-prepared meals. Recent news reports show consumer confidence dipping to its lowest level since January 2021, underscoring fears of slipping into a recession.
“We’re seeing growing concern, not just over inflation, but also over what tariffs might do to grocery prices, to gasoline prices, potential unemployment, and we’re seeing a further contraction into more home-cooked meals, only buying what’s necessary,” she said.
Shoppers are making more frequent trips to the store, taking advantage of sales promotions and buying fresh foods more often to minimize waste.
Ground beef and chicken remain consumer favorites, with ground beef ranking as the No. 1 item in Circana’s database for adding new dollars in 2024.
“That just really shows that consumers are looking for items that help them stretch the meat dollar and seafood dollar,” Roerink explained.
However, seafood has struggled due to its premium perception, despite some growth in frozen seafood toward the end of 2024.
Changes in preferences
While value-focused options like ground beef and chicken remain strong, premium cuts such as ribeye and sirloin also are seeing growth.
“Consumers are really spoiling themselves every once in a while, treating themselves to a steak but also entertaining at home a whole lot more,” Roerink said.
Grilling occasions have expanded throughout the year, supporting the sales of premium cuts.
“That’s really where the strength of the meat department comes from in the last couple of years,” Roerink said.
Regional variations also play a role, particularly in seafood preferences.
“The California market is heavily influenced by items like ceviche and fresh fish, while the Southeast focuses more on crawfish, and the Northeast remains a seafood powerhouse,” she said.
Sustainability, ethical sourcing
While conventional meat remains dominant, sustainable and ethically sourced options like organic, grass-fed and regenerative meats are growing in popularity, particularly among Millennials.
“Millennials are simply more interested in transparency and understanding where their food comes from, how the animal was raised, where it was raised, what it ate,” Roerink said.
She emphasized that sustainability concerns intersect with health, animal welfare and environmental consciousness in consumer purchasing decisions.
On the packaging side, the industry is moving away from Styrofoam in favor of vacuum packaging, which enhances shelf life and reduces leakage.
“Shelf life is really an area where consumers and retailers have a joint interest,” said Roerink, emphasizing the dual benefits of reducing shrink for retailers and minimizing food waste for consumers.
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Emerging product trends
In beef, both premium and value cuts are thriving, while pork is starting to connect with younger consumers through value-added products like marinated pork loins. Lamb, while still small, is growing rapidly, fueled by limited-time offers from retailers like Aldi and Costco.
Premium and specialty meats, such as Wagyu beef and heritage pork, continue to attract consumers looking to recreate restaurant-quality meals at home.
“Consumers often say, ‘I would be spending $60 on a steak at a restaurant, so I don’t mind spending $25-$30 at the grocery store,’” Roerink shared.
Seafood market challenges
Seafood sales remain below 2019 levels, struggling to regain momentum even in “powerhouses” like salmon and shrimp, Roerink said.
While consumers claim to prefer wild-caught seafood, most growth is happening in the farm-raised sector. The industry is focusing on transparency rather than full traceability, as most consumers do not track seafood origins.
Roerink noted that sustainability has always “been a huge part of the seafood story” and that continues to be the case.
Growth in poultry demand
While conventional chicken dominates sales, organic chicken is “absolutely an area of growth, and that has everything to do with more retailers adding it to the assortment,” said Roerink, adding that “the Millennial vote is starting to count more.”
The rise of claims like “air-chilled chicken” highlights the need for clear consumer education on product benefits, she noted.
Convenience-driven trends
Value-added poultry products are thriving in prepared foods rather than raw meat.
“What I find interesting … anything that’s pre-seasoned and marinated has actually not been doing great in the meat department,” Roerink said. “We’ve seen some sales pressure for a few years.
“But if you flip over to the deli department, you’re seeing prepared meats up double digits in dollars and units, by 10-11 percent virtually every month, and that by and large is rotisserie and fried chicken.
“I believe there is a strong demand for convenience in chicken consumption, but to an extent that demand for convenience has moved from the meat department to the deli department.”
She also noted the popularity of ready-to-eat and ready-to-cook meals. “They’re doing very well as consumers are simply looking for a solution to balance time and money.”
Processed chicken, such as nuggets and strips, also is seeing strong growth in refrigerated and frozen, aligning with consumer demand for convenience.
Consumer education
Grocers are increasing in-store demonstrations and education to boost consumer confidence in cooking meats beyond basic cuts.
“Millennials and Gen Z largely focus on grinds and chicken breast, readily admitting they have no clue how to prepare a roast or steak,” Roerink explained.
Retailers are working to expand consumer variety, encouraging them to try new products like Wagyu, ground bison or venison.
“Variety is the superpower of the meat department, and retailers are hyper-focused on getting people to buy just a little bit different,” she said.
Adjusting to household size
As smaller households become more common, retailers are offering varied package sizes. While some are seeking smaller, others want bulk buys at a discount that they can repackage at home.
Roerink noted the popularity of mix-and-match promotions, where consumers pick four or five items for $20.
“Even though they get that bulk pricing, they still have variety within that basket,” she said.
“These are the kinds of things that retailers are doing and are what’s really behind the surge in sales. It’s delivering on consumer needs.”
Opportunities, challenges
The grocery industry is facing income pressure, but Roerink believes that meat retail will continue to thrive.
“For the time being, it’s where the dollars and the meals are sitting,” she said.
Should the economy start to improve, Roerink predicted that some dollars will “leak back to foodservice.”
“But for the time being, I think beef, chicken, pork … are ideally positioned,” she said.
She highlighted the rise of “mini meats” like lamb and bison, which are gaining traction among Millennials due to their unique flavors and ease of preparation.
As 2025 unfolds, the grocery industry continues to adapt to economic challenges, consumer preferences and sustainability concerns, positioning itself for resilience and growth in the evolving marketplace.