Ohio enters 2026 as one of the nation’s most economically competitive states, though a mix of national headwinds and shifting federal policy creates uncertainty in the year ahead.
The state’s gross domestic product reached $979 billion in the third quarter of 2025 – the highest on record, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Ohio also earned the highest possible credit ratings from all three major ratings agencies for the first time in state history. They cited economic diversification and job creation as key drivers of fiscal stability, according to JobsOhio.
JobsOhio completed 311 projects in 2025, with a total of $12.1 billion in capital investment and ranked the state No. 1 in infrastructure nationally for the third consecutive year.
Ohio’s unemployment rate stood at 4.5 percent in December 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – slightly above the national average. Regional disparities persist, with 25 of 88 Ohio counties carrying unemployment rates at or above 5 percent as of mid-2025, and 21 of those were concentrated in Appalachian counties, according to Policy Matters Ohio.
Ohio’s real GDP is projected to grow at about 1.2 percent annually through the current biennium – somewhat slower than the national rate of about 1.7 percent – with inflation expected to average around 2.6 percent, according to Moody’s Analytics projections cited by the Ohio Legislative Service Commission.
The Ohio Chamber of Commerce Foundation’s Economic Advisor Council has flagged that manufacturing, machinery, autos and construction are particularly vulnerable to continued tariff impact and uncertainty.
The Conference Board forecast that GDP growth nationally would decelerate to 1.6 percent in 2025, with continued softening possible into 2026 if tariff effects persist, according to Ohio’s Office of Budget and Management.
State of industry
For Kristin Mullins, 2026 is both a milestone year and a moment of transition. After 36 years at the Ohio Grocers Association – the last 10 as president and CEO – she is retiring.
When asked about the overall health of Ohio’s grocery industry heading into the year, Mullins said retailers are feeling cautious.
“They are still going through some tough times. I think that they still are trying to figure out the new normal after COVID, with supplies, with pricing, with labor challenges. It’s tougher and tougher, especially for that independent out there.”
Mullins said consolidation is an ongoing challenge, with more grocers closing than passing their businesses on to the next generation.
Of the younger generation, Mullins said, “I don’t know, they just don’t want to work that hard. The grocery business is a tough business. I feel that sometimes this next generation, they see how hard their parents worked, and they’re not so sure that they want to take over.”
Mullins pointed to the continued expansion of Walmart and Amazon’s growing footprint in fresh foods as forces working against smaller retailers. She also cited dollar stores as a competitive challenge.
Still, Mullins said well-run independents are holding their own. OGA recently presented its Pinnacle Award to Hogue’s IGA in Bellevue – a small store she described as “doing great” on the strength of its programming, marketing and people.
“I contend the independent can still survive out there, if they’re good. If they have a good store, if they have good marketing, if they have good people.”
Trends
When it comes to the consumer trends having the biggest impact on how Ohio grocers are operating, Mullins said online purchasing tops the list. “Delivery has become much more popular since COVID. Curbside pickup is really prevalent in Ohio’s market.”
Ask Mullins to name the top challenges facing Ohio grocers today, and her No. 1 answer is not labor – though that comes next. It’s electricity.
“No. 1 is electric prices in Ohio. We’re part of the small group of states that all buy from the same source, and it’s not enough,” she said. “Not enough production is happening in the energy space, and so the energy that is available is more expensive.”
“In the grocery store, utilities can be second highest cost behind labor.”
On labor, Mullins said it always has been a challenge but that the price point has changed.
“I’ve been at OGA for 36 years, and we’ve talked about labor since as far as I can remember,” she said. “The difference now is the price point. We don’t have the demographic out there that want to come in, be the first job and work for minimum wage.
“A lot of our grocers don’t even start at minimum wage; they start above minimum wage. But the young people out there, they expect $20 an hour, and we’re paying $12. It’s a challenge.”
Ohio’s minimum wage increased to $11 per hour for non-tipped workers on Jan. 1 – a 2.8 percent increase tied to the consumer price index under a constitutional mandate, according to the Ohio Department of Commerce.
Legislative proposals to accelerate increases to $15 per hour by the end of the decade have been introduced but have not advanced through committee.
The third challenge Mullins named is one of perception: consumers blaming grocers for high food prices.
“With consumers thinking that grocery prices are so high now and that it’s the grocer’s fault – listen, we’re not making any more than we used to. We’re still making that 1 percent we made before. It’s just everything is costing more. It’s not that retailer’s intention to just gouge that consumer.”
Mullins said independents try to counter that perception through their marketing and the customer experience they offer, though she acknowledged they are challenged in getting that message across.
Mullins said technology – particularly artificial intelligence and digital pricing tools – will play a growing role in back-of-house efficiency for Ohio grocers but said she doesn’t expect independents to move away from staffed checkouts.
“I think with digital pricing, I think with AI coming on and some predictive purchasing, just more efficiencies are going to naturally happen. But I don’t think you’re ever going to see nothing but self-checkouts at a grocery store – at least in the independents.”
Legislative issues
Mullins said the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) tops OGA’s legislative watch list heading into 2026, particularly in light of a new state waiver with direct implications for retailers.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has approved Ohio’s request to prohibit SNAP purchases of sugary carbonated drinks, effective Oct. 1, placing compliance responsibility on retailers rather than recipients.
“Starting in October, you will not be able to purchase what I call the fully leaded, full-sugar sodas with your SNAP benefits,” Mullins said. “We will be watching for any kind of expansion on that. We certainly would like to limit the amount of restrictions.”
More than 1.4 million Ohioans – about 12 percent of the state’s population – are enrolled in SNAP, representing 723,870 households, with Ohio’s monthly SNAP allotment exceeding $252 million as of September 2025, according to the Health Policy Institute of Ohio.
Mullins said OGA also monitors minimum wage activity, alcohol and THC legislation, and developments at the federal level, noting it works with the National Grocers Association (NGA) on federal issues.
“Recently, we’ve seen some success with the enforcement of the Robinson-Patman Act – fair pricing. That’s huge for our members, especially our independents. Everything trickles down from the top.”
Food deserts
Food deserts remain a significant issue across Ohio. A 2025 report from the Ohio Association of Community Action found that 67 of the state’s 88 counties have at least one food desert, with about 1.3 million Ohioans living in those areas and some 225,000 lacking access to a car.
Ohio House Bill 543, sponsored by Rep. Josh Williams, R-Toledo area, and Rep. Terrence Upchurch, D-Cleveland, would establish the Food Desert Elimination Grant Program within the Ohio Department of Development, offering annual grants of up to $15,000 per store backed by an initial fund of $200,000. The bill remains under committee consideration.
Mullins noted that a previous state program – Healthy Foods for Ohio – had offered one-time grants and low-interest financing to help grocers open in food deserts, but that funding has not been renewed in recent state budgets.
“It’s disappointing that they’ll recognize the problem, but they’re not doing anything from the state level,” she said. “I think it is going to fall to the cities now to help themselves. I wish everyone the luck that is needed to do that because I’m not so sure that it’s an easy task to take on.”
She pointed to Gem City Market, a cooperative in Dayton that receives city support, as an example of local government involvement in addressing food access.
Mullins said the question of how to feed Ohioans in areas where a grocery store doesn’t make financial sense is one the industry will need to answer.
[RELATED: Grocery Industry – Particularly Independents – Struggling In Ohio]