Mass-channel retailers reached 79 percent penetration in December, equaling traditional supermarkets for the first time as 70 percent of working-age Americans reported difficulty covering unexpected $400 expenses, according to Wave 12 of the dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker released Feb. 18.
The shift marks a fundamental realignment in American shopping behavior driven by persistent affordability pressures. Since the Consumer Trends Tracker’s debut in April 2022, mass-channel penetration has increased 5 percentage points, representing millions of consumers changing where they buy groceries.
Dollar stores overtake warehouse clubs
Dollar stores surged to 42 percent penetration, overtaking club stores for the first time since August 2023. Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar each gained 4-6 percentage points year over year in customer reach.
Walmart led all retailers with 72 percent penetration – up 6 percentage points year over year – serving more than 190 million Americans monthly. That’s 2.5 times the reach of second-place Dollar General at 28.6 percent.
“We are seeing that U.S. households are realigning where they shop based on affordability,” said Matt O’Grady, president of the Americas for Cincinnati-based dunnhumby.
“What makes this different from the 2023 inflation spike is that consumer concern persists even as actual inflation moderates. The consumer is just not feeling it. Where they shop, how they use coupons, even how they adopt AI – everything aligns to saving money. When financial insecurity becomes this entrenched, grocery affordability becomes paramount, and shopping behavior doesn’t just snap back.”
Inflation perception gap widens
U.S. consumers perceive food inflation to be 19.6%, more than eight times the actual rate of 2.4% in December 2025. Households with incomes under $50,000 perceive inflation at 23.6%, nearly 10 times the actual rate.
The perception gap helps explain continued shifts in shopping behavior despite moderating inflation. Seventy percent of working-age Americans ages 18-54 have difficulty covering an unexpected $400 expense. The strain is most acute among lower-income households, with 71 percent of those earning under $50,000 reporting financial insecurity.
Middle- and upper-income Americans also struggle: 48 percent earning $50,000-$100,000 and 36 percent earning over $100,000 report financial insecurity. Only seniors show relative stability, with 30 percent of Americans over 65 facing difficulty covering emergency expenses.
Food insecurity hits middle-aged hardest
Food insecurity affects nearly 40 percent of Americans ages 45-54, the highest rate among any age group, and one in three families with children. The South Central region experiences 34 percent food insecurity and the West 32 percent, significantly higher than the Northeast at 22 percent.
Working-age adults face food insecurity at more than four times the rate of seniors over 65. The quarterly study defines food insecurity as consumers who have reduced their meal size or skipped meals due to financial hardship.
Holiday pullback, loyalty program surge
Despite financial pressures, consumers pulled back on aggressive price-seeking behaviors during the holiday season. Shopping at low-price stores declined 2.1 percentage points and premium purchases dropped 1.5 percentage points from the previous wave in August.
However, bulk buying increased by 1.3 percentage points, suggesting consumers selectively spent during December while maintaining long-term savings strategies through stockpiling.
Loyalty program usage showed the strongest behavioral shift. Nearly half of shoppers, 47 percent, now redeem coupons through store loyalty programs, up 2.5 percentage points from Wave 11. Fifty-two percent actively identify themselves to claim rewards.
Sixty-eight percent of shoppers seek discounts on items they buy regularly, while 62% expect stores to offer abundant promotions.
AI adoption lags amid trust concerns
Just 15 percent of U.S. consumers use AI tools for grocery shopping, with trust emerging as the primary barrier. Thirty-eight percent of respondents do not see the need for it, and 37 percent prefer making their own shopping decisions.
U.S. consumers show significantly more distrust in AI recommendations at 19 percent than the broader Americas average of 12 percent. Among early adopters, the U.S. stands alone in prioritizing the use of AI for shopping lists at 13 percent over price comparison at 12 percent.
Dunnhumby interviewed 8,500 grocery shoppers across Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Chile and the U.S. for Wave 12 of the Consumer Trends Tracker. The online interviews took place in December. The study complements dunnhumby’s Retailer Preference Index, which is released every January.
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