Rise Baking Co. released its outlook for the bakery sector in 2026, highlighting five consumer behaviors and market dynamics expected to influence in-store bakery and foodservice operations throughout the year.
The Minneapolis-based manufacturer, which supplies cakes, cookies, muffins and pies to grocery chains, convenience stores and foodservice operators, identified indulgence, portion variety, flavor innovation, labor efficiency and clean label as the primary trends shaping product development and merchandising strategies.
“As consumer trends evolve, one thing remains constant: their love for bakery products,” said Michael Docherty, EVP of marketing and research and development at Rise Baking. “The year ahead will be defined by premium experiences, everyday indulgences, changes in shopping behaviors, and formats that make it easier for retailers.”
Indulgence maintains position despite value focus
Consumers continue gravitating toward bakery items that feel special and experiential, even amid economic pressures on household budgets. Premium offerings must deliver on both visual appeal and taste quality to justify price points.
Rise’s portfolio reflects this demand through products like Kitchen Sink Cookies, strawberry and birthday cake crispy bars, pistachio muffins and mini bundt cakes. These items target shoppers seeking treats that provide satisfaction beyond basic sweetness.
Size variety drives impulse purchasing
Smaller households, expanded solo dining and portion-conscious eating patterns have increased demand for bakery products in multiple size formats. According to Technomic’s Bakery Consumer Trend Report, impulse remains a leading driver of cookie purchases, closely followed by indulgence.
Offering sweet treats in various sizes allows shoppers to satisfy cravings in approaches that feel portion-appropriate while enabling operators to capture add-on sales opportunities. Fresh-baked, ready-to-enjoy formats further encourage impulse purchases during quick shopping trips.
“For both in-store bakeries and foodservice operators, this size versatility opens the door to convenient add-on opportunities, from meal bundles to grab-and-go options at the bakery case or checkout,” Docherty said. “These strategies help increase check averages while meeting consumers’ desire for a complete experience.”
Rise’s portfolio addresses these occasions through individually wrapped cookies and snack pies for on-the-go consumption, along with pre-cut cake squares and mini bundt cakes for shareable, take-home enjoyment.
Seasonal programs create discovery moments
Limited-time offers provide bakeries flexibility to introduce trending flavors and create timely engagement with shoppers. Distinctive decorations bring seasonal concepts to life, helping products stand out in display cases while signaling what’s new.
Visual cues from specialty finishes often drive social media buzz and encourage trial, positioning the bakery department as a destination for discovery rather than commodity purchases. Familiar flavors paired with twists through finish, texture or color allow retailers to stay current without abandoning classic items.
Rise supports this approach by partnering with customers to monitor flavor trends and offering ready-to-finish and retail-ready formats that simplify limited-time offer rotation. Seasonal examples include Lemon Blueberry Muffin for spring and refreshed versions of classics like Peach Sugared Plum.
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Labor solutions address operational pressures
Retailers and operators increasingly rely on solutions that reduce preparation time and labor demands while preserving quality and creative flexibility. Operational efficiency remains critical for both in-store bakery and foodservice outlets facing workforce constraints.
Rise’s Fast Pan technology streamlines cookie production while delivering freshness and quality. For cakes, the company offers base-iced layers and pre-cut iced squares, freeing decorators to focus on finishing touches. This approach reportedly allows teams to decorate 2.5 times faster while maintaining product consistency.
Clean label commitment addresses transparency demands
Consumers continue seeking ingredients they recognize on labels as regulatory standards evolve across retail and foodservice. These shifts position transparency at the forefront of purchase decisions, particularly as health and wellness mindsets influence product selection.
Shoppers want products that feel thoughtful and trustworthy without sacrificing taste or quality. Rise has supported clean label needs through products like Simplicious pre-deposited muffins and select icings.
Building on that foundation, Rise announced a company-wide commitment to offer solutions made with colors from natural sources across its portfolio by the end of 2026. This transition reflects support for customers navigating evolving consumer and regulatory expectations.
“This next step reflects Rise’s support for its customers through the evolving consumer and regulatory expectations, acting as a trusted partner when they’re ready to transition, without sacrificing product performance and consistency bakery operators depend on,” Docherty said.
The company’s brands include Brill, South Coast Baking, Table Talk, Best Maid, Henry & Henry and Bakestone Brothers. Rise produces products for in-store bakeries and foodservice clients including national grocery chains, convenience stores, quick-service restaurants and mass merchandisers.