After three years of contraction, online grocery sales are growing again, but the real economic opportunity for retailers lies in turning digital demand into valuable in-store experiences, according to a new study from SymphonyAI.
The findings highlight a structural shift in grocery e-commerce behavior and point to a new retail model powered by artificial intelligence.
The fourth annual Grocery E-commerce Benchmark, the largest longitudinal study of digital grocery behavior, analyzed more than 1.3 billion transactions and data from 68 million households across the U.S. and Europe. The research shows that online channels are attracting both new and returning shoppers – with a 12 percent year-over-year increase in new and reactivated digital customers — but the most successful retailers are those converting that engagement into in-store visits, loyalty and higher-value purchases.
A key finding of the study is that online grocery is no longer dominated by weekly stock-up baskets; instead, it is driven by small, mission-specific purchases such as forgotten items and replenishment. The shift in purchase patterns is prompting grocers to rethink in-store environments and operations. Retailers are increasingly using AI-driven insights, segmentation and personalized engagement tied to customer digital behavior to influence merchandising, pricing and store experience.
SymphonyAI identified several trends redefining grocery retail economics:
- Online growth that accelerates new customer acquisition and reactivation through AI-based propensity modeling.
- Digital signals that drive in-store promotions, subscriptions and loyalty triggers, boosting physical visits.
- Smaller online baskets that retailers can expand into full baskets and higher spend by linking digital and in-store experiences.
“These shifts reflect broader pressures – from consumer time scarcity to inflation-driven price sensitivity – and are prompting grocers to rethink how they use digital data and AI to optimize their physical store environments,” the report states.
SymphonyAI said its CINDE Connected Retail platform enables retailers to apply these insights, helping them identify high-value digital shoppers, tailor in-store recommendations and synchronize digital campaigns with physical store activations.
The 2025 Grocery E-commerce Benchmark highlights a rapid evolution in omnichannel grocery retail where AI plays a central role in bridging digital convenience with compelling in-store value — a model many experts view as critical to future growth.
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