Numerator has released The SNAP Evolution: Supporting Shoppers in a Changing Economy, an analysis that explores how shifts in SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) benefits are affecting consumer behavior and retail spending.
The report leverages behavioral data from more than 31,600 verified SNAP recipients – defined as those who used benefits 12 or more times in the past year – and survey responses from more than 1,250 participants to highlight the potential ripple effects on essential and discretionary retail categories amid proposed cuts to SNAP.
Survey and purchase data findings for verified SNAP consumers:
- Grocery spending among SNAP recipients continues to shift in response to program changes. As benefit levels fluctuated – peaking during expanded aid in 2021-22 and dropping sharply after emergency allotments ended in March 2023 – grocery buy rates closely followed. In March 2023 vs. a year ago, SNAP benefits issued dropped by 8.5 percent, while grocery buy rate among SNAP trips declined 8.4 percent.
- Over four in five SNAP users’ benefits don’t last the full month. Eighty-six percent of SNAP users say their benefits are exhausted before the end of the month – leaving the vast majority without financial assistance while grocery shopping.
- SNAP participation peaked in 2022 and has since tapered to a new baseline. Nineteen percent of U.S. households regularly used SNAP benefits in May 2022, compared to 15 percent of U.S. households in February.
- Households on SNAP are skewing higher income. Twenty-three percent of current SNAP households have a household income of $80,000 or more, 53 percent have an income between $40,000-80,000 and 23 percent have an income of less than $40,000.
- The employment status of SNAP households is in flux. Nineteen percent of SNAP households are retired, 33 percent are employed full time and 12 percent are disabled.
- Nearly two-thirds of SNAP households do not have children. Sixty-five percent of SNAP households do not have children in the home, an increase of 5 points from 2020.
- SNAP households are saying their nutritional needs are not being met. Sixty-eight percent say SNAP “somewhat” or “barely” covers nutritional needs.
- With tighter budgets, shoppers are cutting back on nutrient-dense foods. Thirty-one percent of SNAP shoppers say they are buying less meat/protein and 24 percent say they are buying less fresh produce. Forty-seven percent say they are stocking up during sales.
- SNAP households say that it would be beneficial to have more identifiable SNAP-eligible foods, education on creating a grocery budget, smaller/more frequent issuing of benefits and education on healthy food choices.
- Walmart captures a quarter of SNAP shoppers’ CPG and general merchandise spend. According to verified purchase data for SNAP users, Walmart leads in SNAP shopper spend (24 percent), followed by Kroger (8 percent), Costco (6 percent), Amazon (5 percent), Sam’s Club (4 percent), with Walmart, Amazon, 7-Eleven, Dollar General and Dollar Tree over-indexing with SNAP shoppers (versus all shoppers).
- Among top CPG manufacturers, Post, Tyson and Conagra are more exposed to changes in SNAP benefits. Looking at shopping trips where top brands were purchased, 10.6 percent of Post Consumer Brands trips used SNAP dollars, followed by 8.4 percent of Tyson trips, 7.7 percent of Conagra trips, 7.5 percent of Kraft Heinz trips, 7.3 percent of General Mills trips, 7.2 percent of Frito-Lay trips, 6.8 percent of J.M. Smucker trips, 6.8 percent of Bimbo Bakeries USA trips, 6.5 percent of Nestle trips and 6.4 percent of Kellanova trips.
For additional survey and purchase data on SNAP consumers, including state-level views and top CPG and general merchandise retailers, visit the Numerator SNAP Insights Center at numerator.com/SNAP.
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