Ohio’s economy in 2024 presented a mixed bag of progress and challenges, setting the stage for a potentially evolving grocery landscape in 2025.
The state’s grocery economy experienced a downward trend in 2024, as “SNAP benefits decreased, prices for all things (not just groceries) went up, labor challenges continued and more food deserts were created as stores closed,” according to Kristin Mullins, president and CEO of the Ohio Grocers Association.
“The health of the grocery industry can be summed up that we are struggling, especially the independent grocers. More and more are faced with crippling labor issues, supply issues and a lower economy in our communities means a lower profit in the baskets.”
According to Mullins, Ohio is faced with more food deserts as independents are closing – due to economic reasons, retirements with no succession plans or retirements through acquisitions – typically by the larger retailers in the state.
“In 2025, we are hopeful that we can start the rise back under the new administration, but it is yet to be seen,” Mullins said.
However, new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are creating uncertainty for key sectors, including agriculture and manufacturing.
Ohio ranks 21st in terms of tariff exposure, with combined imports from Mexico, Canada and China totaling $79.7 billion. Analysts predict the state could face an economic hit of up to $6 billion, impacting the manufacturing, agriculture and automotive sectors.
According to state data, Ohio’s gross domestic product represented about 10.7 percent of the Great Lakes region’s total economic output in 2024. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent in January, up from 4 percent a year earlier, with an additional 39,000 unemployed people statewide.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals ongoing shifts in Ohio’s labor market. Notably, reports detailed changes in union membership and labor underutilization throughout the year.
Ohio’s fiscal health demonstrated positive variances in key revenue streams. Reports from the Ohio Legislative Service Commission highlight that sales and use tax, and personal income tax, have shown above-estimated receipts. Also, information from the state’s monthly financial reports showed that Ohio’s Real GDP increased during the third quarter of 2024.
Mullins noted that in the grocery industry, inflation and labor continue to present the greatest challenges, although organized retail crime also is an issue.
She noted that the state recently passed the FORCE Act, which dedicates general revenue funds to law enforcement specifically to combat ORC.
“In addition, this new law creates a task force, headed up by the Ohio Attorney General, to focus on issues surrounding ORC at retail. OGA and the independent grocer has a seat on this task force, ensuring the ‘smaller’ voice is heard,” Mullins said.
Efforts to reduce regulatory burdens gained traction in 2024. Reports from organizations like Americans for Prosperity detailed the state’s push to streamline regulations, aiming to stimulate business growth.
Legislative agenda
Mullins said this year’s legislative agenda for OGA is “full, as usual. It’s a budget year for the state, so taxes are always on the table.”
She said OGA is opposing a cigarette levy that would more than double the state tax, “leaving Ohio retailers at a competitive disadvantage.”
The association also is opposing a hemp bill that would place all hemp products for sale only in dispensaries, including products such as CBD-infused beverages and oils.
Mullins noted that OGA’s biggest resource for members is its legislative representation.
“The FORCE Act is a prime example. Other things we offer is aid with regulatory issues – like SNAP, WIC, lottery, sports betting, liquor (we are a state-owned liquor system in Ohio), Weights and Measures and more. Other more direct bottom line help includes our energy program, workers comp program, insurance programs and more,” she said.
“OGA remains relevant in today’s legislative environment, and it is the strength of our independents that keep us working on their behalf.”
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