The 2025 Florida State Economic Outlook from Comerica indicates the state’s economic expansion, which boomed in the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic, will slow down this year but still outpace the national economy.
The report said that “employment growth, a key pillar of Florida’s success in recent years, is set to moderate in 2025, as a cooler global economy and strong dollar weigh on the Sunshine State’s critical tourism sector. A slower housing market also will weigh on hiring. At the same time, tougher immigration enforcement could sting labor supply, particularly in agriculture, construction and leisure and hospitality industries.”
On the upside, residents from other states continue to migrate to Florida. Comerica said that “arrivals of high-net-worth households from the affluent Northeast fuel personal income growth at a considerably faster pace than the national rate,” adding that strong population and income growth mean robust consumer spending and overall economy.
Lorena Holley, VP and general counsel for the Florida Retail Federation, noted that the state’s population has grown to more than 23 million, making it the third-largest in the nation.
Holley, who has been with FRF for nearly seven years, said the state’s economy has grown 3.6 percent per year over the last five years, well above the national average, while the unemployment rate is 3.4 percent, which is well below the national average for two consecutive years.
South Florida’s economy is driven by a variety of industries, including real estate, health care and tourism. The Miami metropolitan region has the highest GDP of all metro areas in Florida, she said.
“South Florida is the fastest growing market in our state,” she added. “Due to the rich culture of the region, there is demand for essential food products as well as unique favorites from all around the world. A healthy combination of retail stores and independent grocers work together to meet the broad and diverse demands of consumers in South Florida.”
Change amid challenges
Several factors that are out of grocers’ control have combined to push grocery prices upward, which impacts shoppers, Holley said.
“We know that it’s important for consumers to have access to quality and affordable eggs, milk and other essentials, but there’s little that stores can do to manage the impact of inflation, tariffs and disease that impacts supply.”
However, there have been new store openings and increased sales among grocers, “driven by population growth and consumer demand,” she said.
According to a Feb. 13 article in the Miami Herald, later this year or next, at least four Winn-Dixie stores in South Florida will be converted to Aldi: 20417 Biscayne Blvd., Aventura; at 941 SW 24th St., Fort Lauderdale; 8855 Boynton Beach Blvd., Boynton Beach; and 5060 Seminole Pratt Whitney Road, Westlake. Aldi is converting about 220 Winn-Dixie and Harveys locations to its banner by sometime in 2027.
Until their conversion, the stores will continue to be operated by Southeastern Grocers.
On Feb. 7, a consortium of private investors, spearheaded by the current CEO and president of SEG, Anthony Hucker, and C&S Wholesale Grocers, announced it had acquired SEG and 170 Winn-Dixie and Harveys Supermarket locations from Aldi U.S.
Aldi U.S. had purchased SEG in March 2024.
The newly formed SEG reacquired Winn-Dixie and Harveys stores in Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi, as well as the Winn-Dixie liquor store business. Hucker will serve as chairman, CEO and president of SEG.
The Herald noted that SEG has not announced the specific locations it will regain or its course of action once it has the stores back. But improvements to the stores are expected.
Hucker said SEG will “reinvest in the store fleet … to elevate and revolutionize our customer experience and store offerings, so that each step we take will reflect our dedication to our people and our communities.”
C&S has supplied SEG stores for 20 years. Eric Winn, the company’s CEO, commented, “C&S will leverage our best-in-class capabilities to provide value and quality to shoppers as we continue advancing our legacy of braggingly happy customers.”
FRF at work
The FRF – which recently celebrated its 85th anniversary – is the only statewide organization “dedicated to supporting Florida’s retail stores through advocacy, unity and influence,” Holley noted.
She said that organized retail crime is a threat across the nation, “and Florida is no exception. But we are fortunate to have strong partners on the state level and in law enforcement who have increased penalties and invested resources to hold criminals accountable.”
The business rent tax is another area where grocers would like to see relief.
“For grocers that rent or lease space, there’s a desire to eliminate the state’s business rent tax. Most states do not tax on rent, and Florida’s tax has historically been among the highest in the nation,” Holley said. “The costs can be significant, especially for large stores on leased property. And given that property values have risen significantly in recent years, rent rates and rent taxes have climbed as well.”
She said FRF has worked closely with Florida lawmakers to reduce the rent tax, now at 2 percent.
“Our goal is to zero out this tax burden, enabling businesses like grocers to save money and invest more in their team members.”
The legislative session also has yielded a number of bills inspired by the “Make America Healthy Again” movement relating to certain food and drink additive bans and food labeling.
“The Florida Retail Federation will continue to work with lawmakers to make sure policy is science-based and also consistent with federal law,” Holley said.