As one of the biggest food holidays in America, Thanksgiving sales make or break November in food retailing. According to the mid-November IRI survey of primary shoppers, many Americans were back to celebrating like normal with an expected increase in the number of people in the party when compared to the last two years.
As such, COVID-19 seemed less of a concern in the planning of Thanksgiving celebrations, but inflation did take a bite out of Thanksgiving spending. IRI, 210 Analytics and Marriner Marketing have released the trends and analysis relative to meat department sales, including fresh and processed items.
The average price per pound in the meat department across all cuts and kinds, both fixed and random weight, stood at $3.71 in November. That is below the typical monthly average because of the Thanksgiving promotions. For instance, October averaged $4.53 per pound. Inflation for total meat was down to 7.7 percent in November and 10 percent during the latest 52 weeks. This means meat had below-average inflation compared to total foods and beverages, especially on the fresh meat side. Inflation in processed meat also dropped into single-digits.
By protein, the moderation in price increases is driven by beef, pork and bacon. On the other hand, chicken and turkey continued to experience double-digit inflation, though the increases are moderating here as well. Packaged lunch meat had the highest increases of all, at 20 percent over November 2021 levels.
With inflation moderating, the year-on-year growth numbers are coming down a bit. November dollars exceeded prior year levels by 1.9 percent but volume sales dropped. November volume moved below the 2019 pre-pandemic levels for fresh meat, pulling down total meat volume sales with it.
Total fresh meat sales were up 0.6 percent in November versus year ago. Chicken delivered big, but this was inflation driven. Beef that has experienced a decrease pricing over the last couple of months was rewarded with positive pound growth.
Packaged lunch meat, frankfurters and breakfast sausage led dollar growth in November 2022 versus year ago. However, in the case of packaged lunch meat, it is driven by substantial increases in price increases. There were several areas with positive volume growth, being bacon, frankfurters and breakfast sausage.
Thanksgiving holiday shopping and consumption patterns provide a glimpse at what the winter holiday season may look like. According to the IRI November survey, consumers are split between being excited to have something to celebrate and pulling back on spending given the reduction in purchasing power.
The next performance report in the IRI, 210 Analytics and Marriner Marketing series will be released mid-January to cover December and year-end sales trends.
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